Kristol Caveats
By Gerry Daly Posted in The Courts — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Below, Mark Kilmer analyzes William Kristol's kvetching over the possibility of Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez being nominated to fill the Associate Justice vacancy on the Supreme Court now that President Bush has shifted John Roberts' nomination to that of Chief Justice.
Kristol has earned having his rumblings about the Supreme Court taken seriously by the virtue of being about the only reporter or pundit to give early warning to Justice Sandra Day O'Connor's retirement, as he did in this Weekly Standard bit from late June.
(1) There will be a Supreme Court resignation within the next week. But it will be Justice O'Connor, not Chief Justice Rehnquist. There are several tea-leaf-like suggestions that O'Connor may be stepping down, including the fact that she has apparently arranged to spend much more time in Arizona beginning this fall. There are also recent intimations that Chief Justice Rehnquist may not resign. This would be consistent with Justice O'Connor having confided her plan to step down to the chief a while ago. Rehnquist probably believes that it wouldn't be good for the Court to have two resignations at once, so he would presumably stay on for as long as his health permits, and/or until after Justice O'Connor's replacement is confirmed.
This is exactly how things played out. O'Connor did retire, and Rehnquist did decide to stay on for as long as his health permitted. Ten points to the House of Kristol for scooping the world.
But while Kristol has earned being taken seriously on the subject, he also has earned his warnings over Gonzalez to be taken with a healthy number of grains of salt.
Continued below the fold...
For while Kristol did have the scoop on how the retirements would go, his sources in the Court proved to be much more reliable than his sources within the Bush camp. The very next paragraph in the article gives an example.
(2) President Bush will appoint Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to replace O'Connor. Bush certainly wants to put Gonzales on the Supreme Court. Presidents usually find a way to do what they want to do.
As we all know, the President instead tapped John Roberts.
Kristol was not done with his Gonzalez meme, however. On July 10th, he went on Fox News Sunday (as reported by NewsMax) and predicted that Gonzalez would be the nominee for Chief Justice when the time came.
"The chief justice will step down this week," Kristol, who accurately forecast last month that O'Connor would be the first to go, told "Fox News Sunday."
"The president is planning to announce two nominations for those vacancies before he leaves for Crawford at the end of the month," he predicted. "I've been told that the White House has told certain people to keep their calendars clear for July 26 and 27."
Kristol said sources "close to the White House and at the Justice Department" have told him that "the president wants to nominate Attorney General Gonzales to be chief justice."
Where Kristol had gotten it right before, that O'Connor would retire but Rehnquist would not, he there ended up getting Rehnquist's plans wrong. And once again, he predicted a Gonzalez nomination. And once again, Bush instead selected John Roberts.
If Kristol actually thinks that Gonzalez will be the nominee, or if he is just trying to assure that sufficient grassroots pressure is applied to preclude any possibility, is something over which we can merely speculate. However, it is clear that the President is aware of the thinking of people like Kristol. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the President made mention of Gonzalez to reporters.
President Bush said Tuesday that his list of candidates to replace Justice Sandra Day O'Connor was "wide open," and he jokingly but pointedly singled out Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales...
"The list is wide open, which should create some good speculation here in Washington," Mr. Bush said to laughter in the Cabinet Room, with the attorney general sitting directly across from him. "And make sure you notice when I said that, I looked right at Al Gonzales, who can really create speculation."
Was Bush tipping his hand, or was he poking fun at those, like Kristol, who have Gonzalez on the brain? My guess is the latter.
« BREAKING: Supreme Court Rejects Challenge To Indiana Voter ID Law — Comments (21) | Gonzalez for O'Connor? — Comments (16) »
Kristol Caveats 6 Comments (0 topical, 6 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Bill Kristol... kinda like a stopped watch, only right less often.
What is it with Kristol these days? I'm beginning to think he's hoping for a Hagel presidency.
During the 2000 presidential primary, Krisotl and the Weekly Standard were some of his most ardent supporters because of the whole "national greatness" theme.
Bush appoints people based on what he believes is the right thing to do, no matter the political consequences. We always accept this fact when refering to the chances of a right-wing staunch originalist, But don't forget it can be used against us. If Bush wants to nominate Gonzales, then he WILL nominate him, regardless of the political consequences.
Yes, that's right. I had forgotten. It would explain a lot of what he's been saying for the last two months. Makes me think he envisions a role in a McCain Whitehouse--Chief of Staff?
Off the coast of New Jersey, I used to take an occasional chartered day trip on fishing boats that departed from the docks along the Jersey shore. One of the things that the crew of the boat did to attract the fish was throw chum (smelly, ground up dead fish) into the water and bring the fishies near the boat so that people on the tour would have a better chance to catch some fish and go home happy, report a successful trip, and then come back.
Sometimes Kristol is very accurate, but some of what he writes is like the chum in the water: he throws it out there to see how many people are going to bite. I agree with you; I think Gonzales is off the radar and the President is pulling everyone's leg. Gonzales himself took his name off the table quite a while ago, but Kristol keeps throwing the chum, just to see which schools he's attracting around the boat.