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By jannelsen Posted in Breaking News — Comments (20) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Ellsworth Air Force Base is saved. Rapid City is saved. South Dakota’s economy is saved. And Sen. John Thune’s political career is looking pretty good right now.

The Base Realignment and Closure Commission this morning voted 8-1 to reject the Department of Defense’s recommendation to close Ellsworth Air Force Base and transfer its 29 B-1 bombers to Dyess AFB in Texas.

First, let me say this: Thune, Thune, Thune. Thune for vice president, 2008. Thune for president, 2016. Thune for president of the University of South Dakota, 2032. He’s conservative, telegenic, an articulate voice for the party, a basketball fan, and he beat Minority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004. Friday’s decision means he can continue to shine as a policy maker and Republican spokesman for many, dare I say, decades into the future without Ellsworth dominating the discussion.

Had the BRAC decision gone the other way, we would have suffered five solid years of denunciations from the political left, embittered by Thune’s defeat of Daschle. Daschle’s operatives have remained in action since his defeat, and no doubt they would have ramped up their attacks against the Republican. Supposedly, Thune’s victory in 2004 rested on his “promise” to save Ellsworth. Had Ellsworth closed, that would have made Thune “a liar.” Which would have been “crap,” of course.

This political context aside, it would be wrong to view today’s BRAC decision as primarily political, one concerned first and foremost with Sen. Thune’s fate. Fun, gossipy, titillating, cool…but wrong.

First, any political gains accrue to South Dakota’s politicians of both parties. At a news conference immediately after the vote -- good coverage at Southdakotapolitics -- speakers were Sen. Tim Johnson and Rep. Stephanie Herseth, both Democrats, and Thune and Gov. Mike Rounds, Republicans. Johnson, as senior senator, spoke first. Herseth is up for re-election in 2006, and Johnson in 2008, while Thune has until 2010 before he has to run again for the Senate.

They all made pains to argue that BRAC’s vote – 8-1, remember – was based on the merits of the case.

As Thune said:

"This fight was not about me. It was all about the people of South Dakota and Rapid City who were impacted by the decision. This whole decision was about the merits. It had nothing to do with politics."

(Quote from the New York Times here. Thune’s official press statement here.

The Air Force will continue to operate two B-1 bomber bases, providing the military benefits of redundancy – perhaps the strongest argument in favor of retaining Ellsworth. The South Dakotans called it the “putting all your eggs in one basket” argument, that is, for both operational and strategic reasons, keeping all your B-1 bombers at one location is a bad idea. Two bases provide flexibility: You can fly your bombers at 300 feet over much more of Wyoming and South Dakota than Texas. Furthermore, the Soviets cannot take out the entire B-1 fleet with a single ICBM barrage. (Well, the general principle holds. A more likely scenario than nuclear destruction: If dust storms disable Dyess, then Ellsworth will be OK; if blizzards disable Ellsworth, then Dyess is all right.)

Besides, as Ellsworth’s defenders successfully argued, the DOD-estimated savings involved with closing the base were both questionable and, at best, marginal.

Unlike DOD in making its recommendations, BRAC was also empowered to consider the economic impact of any closings or realignments, a topic Chairman Principi focused on in his questioning. BRAC’s decision prevents the loss of an estimated 3,800 jobs from the western part of the state, representing 9 percent of the employment base in the Rapid City area. In comparison, the average employment hit from a DOD base-closing or realignment decision was plus or minus 1.5 percent.

The BRAC commissioners have shown themselves surprisingly willing this week to buck Secretary Rumsfeld’s recommendations for closures or realignments. Earlier, they voted to keep open New London Submarine Base in Groton, Conn., thereby rewarding Bush loyalists Sens. Joe Lieberman and Chris Dodd. They voted to maintain Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Kittery, Maine, giving a big smooch to arch-conservatives Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

In both cases, just as with Ellsworth, commissioners seemed moved by issues of economic impact and the need for strategic redundancy. (Summary box of actions “>here.)

Finally, a word on behalf of the people who made the case on the merits. The national media publications will highlight Thune’s involvement, but South Dakota was no different than any other state where bases were threatened. Support for the military installation grew at the local level, from business leaders who feared the economic impact, from former military men and women once stationed at and still loyal to Ellsworth, and from those who view the base as an integral part of their community, full of family and friends.

As elsewhere, support was orchestrated by a local task force. Supporters turned out by the thousands at a BRAC hearing in Rapid City. (pdf transcript here.) Community people told their story, experts told their stories. The merits came through.

A few hoops remain to be jumped through – a final BRAC vote tomorrow, President Bush’s acceptance of the commission report, and a congressional vote to accept or reject the BRAC report in its entirely. But it’s safe to say that Ellsworth is saved.

And now, this great success accomplished, a new burden has been placed on Thune’s shoulders. This morning he noted with a wry grin that he had spent more time with the BRAC commission than with his wife and kids over the last three months. (Indeed, he’s been at the commission meeting in Arlington since Wednesday.) Now, Senator, after some well-deserved vacation days with the family, it’s time to move on to the next topic. It’s time to provide the leadership for the party and the nation we Republican supporters expect of you.

We know you’re up to it.