Redstate

should at least give you pause.  I have no idea what kind of condition Fortress Byrdopa is actually in, but until that's verified by a polling organization with the (R) after it's name, I wouldn't put too much stock in it.  The only way Capitio gets traction in this race is if she overcomes the initial belief that Byrd is unbeatable - which polls like can help do, whether they are true or not.

DP, it's kind of funny how you write sometimes.  I swear it's almost like two people are doing the writing.  One person is the down-to-earth ardent Republican with a few inconsistent believes, and the other sounds like the media director I worked with at Kentucky Democratic Party Headquarters when I was research director, except on the opposite side of the aisle.  You push Republi-speak more than even some of your more ardent compatriots on this site - usually not the throwaway "liberal elitist" rhetoric from your average plentiplaint, but a more nuanced framing kind of spin.  Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it interests me.

First, as to the (R) polling firm.  My understanding (which is rudimentary here) is that the firm is mainly a business/marketing polling firm in WV so politics is not their main thing.  However, Kossites seem to have found some donations going from prominent Rs to the firm which I have not had the time nor desire to look into.  I figure it is safer to say it may be an (R) firm or may have been hired by Rs.  Either way even if the results are off by 5-10 points, the finding is strong and somewhat surprising.

As for the dual nature of my writing, I'd say there are several different hats that I wear at times.  When I do analysis, I strive to get things right without any sugarcoating.  That includes judging the chances of candidates, the effect of issues on voting, and how to approach an issue.  By lacking that analysis, the kossites were able to convince themselves that a Dem landslide was going to happen in 2004.  I didn't predict a winner in the Pres race because (and I still believe this), it was too close to call ahead of time.  I did pick all Senate races and got 9 of the 10 right (missing the Murkowski win I believe).  Thus, my analysis that Capito may have a chance (awaiting more polls) is one I like to believe is due to rational thought, not wishful thinking.

OTOH, I also have a goal.  I would like to see economic conservatives and small government candidates win office and enact pro-market reforms.  Thus, I will use terms and POVs that are beneficial toward that end.  Might I ask what "Republi-speak" I have been pushing?  (I don't deny it, I'm just wondering what it is.)

Non-partisan polls put Byrd at well over 50%.  Non-partisan polls also put Chafee, Santorum, and Burns under 50%, so by your logic, there are going to be some serious losses for the Republicans next year.

unfortunately, is that Byrd will leave the Senate feet first. He has clearly decided agianst letting the onset of senility be a determining factor, so he will continue buying votes with still more pork until his metabolic functions flatline. He is a Senator for life, and he appears to physically healthy.

First, please link to polls if you're going to reference them.

Second, I'm moving to Chi-town in the fall how do you like the place?

Third, no poll has Chafee under 50 against anyone who is actually running (he was under 50 against Langevin who pro-choice groups muscled out).  Santorum is in trouble.  And I haven't seen any polls with Burns under 50, but I stand to be corrected if you can find them.

Finally, if Rs lose Santorum (and maybe Burns although I wouldn't bet on it) that's the absolute worst they could do (-3 including TN)*.  With MI, ND, NE, FL, MD, WA, and WV as possible pickups, they could max out at +7.  And the most likely result is a +1 to +3 for Rs which I what I am predicted at this point.  I'd worry about Dem "serious losses" if I were you.

*Losing Chafee doesn't hurt Rs since he votes against them on most partisan issues (nuclear/constitution option, abortion, judicial nominees, bolton, etc)

but my understanding is that it is his wife's health that might convince him to not run again if it looks like a close hard-fought election is coming his way.  I have no inside information, but that was what I had read.

"He appears to be physically healthy."

Umm... I guess he appears to be physically healthy if your standard for being physically healthy is that his heart still beats, but by any other standard Sen. Byrd isn't exactly a picture of health. If Capito gets in the race, Byrd could well have a senior moment or experience something like Sen. Bunning did last year in Kentucky, almost losing to a State Senator after leading in the polls all along. A whisper campaign that the old man isn't what he used to be might not work as well with an icon like Robert Byrd, but it's not outside of the realm of possibility that he might do something to open the door to a solid candidate like Rep. Capito.

It's the greatest city in America as far as I'm concerned!  But if you intend to remain a conservative Republican, be prepared to be in a minority of one in most settings, and to have most people you encounter disagree with you vehemently, unless you move to the outer suburbs (but what's the point of that?).  Chicago and its inner suburbs are just about as Blue-State as you can get outside of Manhattan and San Francisco.

I went to a liberal high school, a liberal university, the peace corps, and I now leave in the heart of DC where the non-yuppies live.  So it'll be right up my alley.  I guess since I hope to be a professor, I should get used to it.  Anywho, Hyde Park seems quite similar to my current neighborhood so I'm not worried about the adjustment.

I live in Chicago too and lived in Lincoln Park, Wrigleyville, and Downtown.  The city is so big there are tons of both liberals and conservatives.  Most people I know (20s-30s yrs old) are conservative and I don't seek them out.  My two roommates are lawyers and they were both conservative.  Email me (iamright@gmail.com) when you move to Chicago and we can exchange some stories.  

I'm not the ones who referenced the polls but...

Mason-Dixon 5/23-25

Has Burns as 49% and 50% against Morrison and Tester in a R leaning polling service.

The only Chafee poll I remember is by the Democrats so thats obviously partisan.  However, Chafee was under 50 against all three polled opponents.

MANUAL TRACKBACK

ambitious man you are.

Thank for someone to actually listen to Byrd closely and then to filet the resulting mess carefully, exposing to all what a vapid, hypocritical sack he is. But I would rather hedge my bets and bet that he will outlive Strom Thurmond, hoping that he is instead called home to the great pork barrel in the sky. If a serious candidate does emerge against him, I will donate all I can to the cause. Getting rid of the 3 dinosaurs in the Senate, Byrd, Reid and Kennedy, is one of my fondest hopes. I think between the three of them, they lower the standards of the Senate, and the quality of its function, 2 or 3 standard deviations.

Scoop doesn't do well with the automatic trackback system, but "manual trackbacks" work just as well.  Thanks for linking back to your site and doubly thanks for linking to the article.

Man I've been DYING to use that pun.  So much so that I can barely muster the will to finish my comment...

Byrd is vulnerable because:

1.  He is old and out of practice.  He could be outcampaigned on the road by a younger, more energetic person with a good campaign apparatus.  He probably hasn't "gone to the mattresses" since his first election (during Reconstruction), so I'd suspect his operational capability is weak.
   
   
2.  Shifting demographics.  This is Red State territory.  Kind of like South Dakota...
   
   
3.  Outside support.  I personally have little interest in South Dakotan politics, but I contributed to Thune's campaign because Daschle was hindering progress.  I'd consider doing the same for the GOP nominee against Byrd.  I would expect lots of bucks to pour in to get rid for Byrd, if anything, from self-interested parties who want their turn at the appropriations trough.

If Byrd is so strong, why did he join the Gang of 14?  He knows his wings are due for clipping.

Thanks again to Doverspa for tracking the Senate.  Each race is critical to furthering our agenda.  The Senate should favor us since I believe there are more Red states than Blue.  Now if we can get the House to return to fiscal conservatism before we lose that chamber...

The thing that really could change things up about all of this is the fact that Byrd is a very, very old man. He's not going to be able to deal with the day-to-day stresses of a really competitive campaign anymore. If somebody ran hard against Strom Thurmond, I'm not sure he would have stood for re-election either.

Byrd won't be able to sit in Washington this time around if he wants to win re-election. Personally, I think it's more likely that he will just decide not to run for re-election at all rather than sacrifice his seat to a Republican who would beat him. There are other decent Democrats in West Virginia who would run a better campaign against Capito (or run a campaign at all) than Byrd.

Boy, hasn't Bob Byrd gone downhill quite recently? I think it's about time for him to just leave his seat and let the Republicans come in and take it over. REMEBER SOUTH DAKOTA 2004!! Who seriously saw Tom Daschle losing to John Thune before the election? I was so shocked, it wasn't funny. I think the same thing is going to happen here. Byrd will lose his seat. The Republicans will gain an even greater majority in the Senate.