We Are Winning in Iraq
By Rancher Posted in User Blogs — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Happy birthday United States Marine Corp, hoo rah!
Everyday we hear reports on every explosion and casualty out of Iraq. What's missing from these MSM stories are the victories that we are experiencing daily. Have you seen any reports on Operation Steel Curtain by the MSM? I had to go, where else, to the blogosphere to get my news. The news is we're winning and the MSM doesn't want you to know that. In fact, from printing CIA leaks and stories about phony Koran flushing, to the lack of fact checking traitorous marines, (you don't know how much it hurts to say that), the MSM seems to want us to loose. We are however gaining ground every day. Our Armed Forces along with elite Iraqi forces secure areas and other trained Iraqis take over security in those areas. We heard that 2000 soldiers had died by the MSM, but did they mention that 200,000 Iraqis are now members of the police force or National Guard?
Bill Roggio at The Fourth Rail conducted an interview with the Commander of Marine Regimental Combat Team - 2, Colonel Stephen W. Davis. His Marines and Iraqi units are in the border town of Husaybah. Some excerpts:
Bill: What is the current status of Operation Steel Curtain?
Col Davis: Husaybah has been cleared and secured. Coalition forces are now conducting combat patrols. Construction is underway for basing of Iraqi and U.S. troops to maintain a permanent presence in the city, and provide security. We had a real good plan, but the execution was even better. I am pleased with the results of Operation Steel Curtain.
Bill: MNF-West states there were 1,000 Iraqi troops involved, while CNN and other news outlets reports 550. Is there an explanation for this discrepancy?
Col Davis: The number is just a hair short of 1,000. There is one full battalion of Iraqi Army soldiers, one brigade headquarters unit, units from the Desert Protection Force, and a Special Operations Forces unit, which was trained by [U.S.] Army Green Berets. These SOF units are high caliber units with a great deal of expertise and bring it to the battlefield.
Bill: How is the Desert Protection Force organized and trained?
Col Davis: These are platoon sized units recruited locally and trained in reconnaissance and scout techniques. They add a level of granularity due to their experience and local knowledge of the region. They have been very, very helpful during Operation Steel Curtain.
This next comment especially tells me we are winning, that each day brings us closer to an Iraq stable enough for us to pull out.
The Desert Protection Force escorted residents out of harms way to the displaced persons facility, where they receive food, shelter and medical care. Word spreads pretty fast throughout the city and they came to the facility on their own. As in all of the cities and towns out here, once the citizens are free of the influence of the insurgents and are assured the Iraqi Army will remain, they open up and show us who has been supporting the insurgency, where they are hiding, lead us to ammunition dumps and safe houses and provide tips on what the insurgent have been saying and planning.
Troop fatalities are down from a year ago. Iraqi police and troop fatalities are on a steady decline. Civilian deaths due to carbombings are on a decline.
but I'll give you what I came up with on Google:
Looks like 99 casualties in October- a fairly bad month. But let me assume that your link, once properly opened, shows some better or more convincing data than I have access to that does indicate that things are getting better. That only goes to my larger point- if things are truly getting better the Administration needs to start communicating that fact coherently. It is pathetic that Redstate bloggers are apparently the only ones trying to provide info and make some case kind of case that things are going in the right direction. That's the President's job.
The MSM is what it is. They're the ones on TV and writing the newspapers. If there's a better story then what they're reporting, then its Bush's job to get it out there. If he can do that more successfully then he has to date, then we are at risk of losing this thing because public support continues to erode.
what you mean here:
Administration needs to start communicating that fact coherently------- That's the President's job
seems like every time this president says anything "he automatically lying" so what good would it do for him to spend time doing so? Also I would say it is the Pentagons job to articulate their message, and they do so unfortunately, again, no one wants to listen, believe it, or write about it!
Multi-National Security Transition Command -Iraq Troops Facts Sheet
Air Force
The Iraqi Air Force today is a five-squadron force of light reconnaissance aircraft, C-130E transport planes, and helicopters. Operations to date have centered on supporting Iraqi Security Force operations on the ground, infrastructure reconnaissance, and border security missions.
Initial operations are already underway, with more of the force coming on-line throughout 2005 and 2006.
Army
The Iraqi Army will ultimately be comprised of 113 combat battalions: 91 Infantry battalions, 12 special Iraqi Intervention Force battalions, five mechanized Infantry battalions, four tank battalions, and one special-duty security battalion. Nine Motor Transportation Regiments, three mechanized combat service support battalions, and 10 base support units will sustain the Iraqi Army forces.
The bulk of the force has been in the fight since prior to the 30 January 2005 elections, with the remainder of the units coming on-line through 2005 and into 2006.
Navy
Today, the Navy includes five 27-meter long Predator-class patrol boats, with six more Al Faw class boats coming on line throughout 2006. The Iraqi Navy and Marines also use other smaller craft to control the approaches to the Iraqi ports, defend the oil platforms, and prevent foreign-fighter infiltration.
Intervention Forces.
The Iraqi Intervention Force (IIF) is the highly-trained counter-insurgency element of the Iraqi Army. It is trained and equipped for rapid movement to trouble spots around the country, and has been so employed since its activation in 2004.
Comprised of 12 battalions, organized into four brigades, the 1 st Iraqi Army Division (IIF) soldiers negotiate the standard eight-week basic training all Iraqi soldiers complete. After basic graduation, IIF battalions spend several months in intensive "military operations in urban terrain" follow-on training - otherwise know as "MOUT" training. In this period, Iraqi soldiers work through instruction in the art of street fighting and building-clearing operations typical to anti-insurgent operations in cities and towns. They also learn how to carry out raid missions, process detainees in a disciplined and human manner, and work among the population to support national goals.
The skilled IIF units work in close coordination with other Iraqi Army and Coalition forces. The 1 st Iraqi Army Division (IIF) has been in the fight since mid-2004.
Special Operations Force
The Iraqi Special Operations Force, Iraqi Armed Forces' high-end strike force resembling U.S. Special Operations Forces units, continues training and conducting operations in Iraq with Coalition force assistance.
The ISOF consists of two elite battalions: the Commando Battalion (a Ranger-type strike force) and the Iraqi Counterterrorism Battalion (a trained hostage rescue and raiding force). The ISOF has been involved in many successful and distinct operations fighting terrorists throughout the country. In the coming months, the ISOF will add a third battalion focused on combat service support. Tough and realistic training is conducted at an undisclosed location.
Selection for the ISOF begins in the Iraqi Army units already operating in the country, much like the pattern in many Coalition country Special Operations Forces. Outstanding recruits must meet high standards in the vetting process, including exhaustive background checks. They undergo difficult skill evaluations, along with literacy, psychological, and physical tests. The candidates participate in and execute various team-building and physical events designed to select the best of the best. This challenging selection process runs roughly 10 to 14 days.
Briefing by major general Rick Lynch, deputy chief of staff, Multinational Force Iraq November 3rd, 2005
Right now there are over 111,000 trained and equipped members of the Iraqi police. The end state is 195,000 trained and equipped. So you can see we're over halfway there, working with our Iraqi colleagues.
that there is a specific plan for Iraqis taking back control of their own security and we are making progress towards it. Thanks for the info. Just curious- has anyone attempted to say when to expect those forces to be fully trained?
But that question aside, what would really make me happy is if rather than Maj. Gen Rick Lynch giving a briefing on this, Bush or at least Rumsfeld would have a press conference laying out this plan and the progress thus far towards achieving it. It would also be nice if, in that context, they highlighted things like the military success topic of this diary. If they don't want to take the heat of a press conference, at least go on Rush, Hannity or Hugh to get the message out to a friendly audience.
Its probably true that a large part of our country will sneer at anything Bush tries to point to as success at this point, but I believe 51%+ of the people still really want to hear good news on Iraq, but unfortunately have to be spoon fed the information to get past the MSM filters. Support for the war has continued to decline and unless Bush can get the message out about the goal we are working towards and the success we have so far, I am concerned this country will lose the will to stay the course.
Care to point out specifically? Looking at the numbers myself I'm not seeing it. Are you counting average per day? Average number per month? Total this year compared to last year? This October vs last October? What?
Depending on how you're counting, it could be up a bit or down a bit, but as far as I can tell, it's pretty much the same.
And four of the five measures of death -- us military deaths in hostile incidents, us military injuries, total car bombings, and iraqi police/military deaths are well off of their peak totals. Only one measure -- upper-end civilian deaths -- is near its peak. This is despite the fact that we just had a (successful) referendum that was supposed to be preceded by a massive upswing in insurgent attacks. You can look on page 20, and you learn that the country is largely peaceful -- 85% of the attacks are concentrated in four provinces that contain 42% of the Iraqi people.
Looking at some other measures, though, attacks on oil and gas pipelines are way down from a year ago. Nationwide electricity is way up from pre-war levels, though Baghdad is worse off. Telephone subscribers are quintuple prewar levels, and internet subscribers are 30x prewar levels.
Most importantly to me, on page 33 we learn that most Iraqis continue to believe their country is headed in the right direction, which is more than the US can say. While the number hasn't been tested since April, 82% believe their life will be better a year from now. While they don't much care for American troops, and a disturbing number support attacks on those troops, a lage percentage seem to have faith in their country, which is really the most important measure.
Seriously, this was one of the best things I've seen in awhile from the Administration (admittedly that's not saying much). Post-Katrina/Miers/Libby they badly need to get back on the offensive.
Hopefully this will be a sustained "campaign" style effort and not just a one-off speech.
I just spent the evening with Lima Company, 3/25th, Ohio's USMC. Talk about winners. Everyone of these young men stood out. Wonderful.
you are wrong. There is little difference in killed coalition troops either
on a annual or 3m average basis. However, there is a reduction in wounded. A chart is here.
After the 11/03 4/04, 11/04 and 1/05 peaks, the average reverts back to a 65-75
range in vast majority of months. Also note the following:
2003 Mean 57.9, 240.9 Median 47.5, 236.5
2004 Mean 75.4, 665.8 Median 71.0, 618.5
2005 Mean 74.4, 512.0 Median 71.5, 523.5
Also a 4 week graph of killed here.
and same for wounded here.
Easier to read than my graph.
I am suspicious of any source of Iraqi civilian casualties by month. Ie, your
source on one chart excludes dead at the morgue and I have no idea why (page 10)
Even so, that chart does not show any clearly declining trend, just a reversion to
mean as after previous spikes. One alternative gauge would be to total dead from
large car bombs and similar attacks where press reports can be deemed reasonably
accurate. Again, from your source, page 11, does not show a decline, if anything
the numbers are trending higher.
As to pipeline attacks, you are mincing things here, the numbers have been
consistently order 12 with exception of the 3 peak months. And clearly all
attacks are not equal in damage done, and I don't see an attempt to quantify
this.
Further, page 20, daily attacks by insurgents has done nothing but grow.
Also keep in mind that at this point only the largest attacks, be they on people
or infrastructure, are reported in the US press. The media is too busy beating
the Bush Lied, CIA leak, <insert natural disaster here> stories.
I'm sorry if I appear to be excessively negative, but I just felt you were
spinning things. Personally I view things as being in stasis now, at least
on the security front. Frankly I think Bush should be lowering the bar on
the upcoming elections as too many expect the insurgency to magically die
down after that. Its not likely to happen and while the improved political
situation is important in the longer run, in the short run it is the standing
up of a competent and over powering Iraqi army and police force that will
bring this to an end.
Looking at the graphs, I feel perfectly comfortable with my "deaths are substantially off their peak" comment. Indeed, we're still better off than a year ago -- at very worst its the same.
I agree civilian casualties are hard to measure, which is why I used the "upper end" numbers from the Saban index.
as a matter of capability.
An Iraqi battalion only moves into Category 1 status when it can conduct independent combat operations. This means develop and analyze its own intelligence, do its own planning, transport its own troops, supply its own troops, and evacuate its own casualties without US assistance.
The hindrance right now in putting more units in Category 1 is there is a huge deficiency on the logistics side. As far as fighting goes, the Category 2 units can lead the fight but need US back up.
I want to believe we are winning, but I see reports of these operations, I know there were similar ones on towns near the Syrian border earlier in the year, and they sound like they are successful, but there's no discerable change in the number of US forces killed or carbombed Iraqis.
Someone- I would hope the administration, but apparently not- needs to put these successes in some kind of context as to where the situation is ultimately going. The Administration has been playing up the political milestones, which have been great, but the political milestones end Dec. 15th. This thing isn't going to be over Dec. 16th. Where do we go at that point? The next milestone will be: When are enough Iraqi forces successfully trained to maintain the security of their own country. When is that going to happen- I haven't the slightest idea. You cite some participation of Iraqi forces in a recent operation, which again is great, but context- 1,000 Iraqi troops- is that only a small fraction of what has been trained and is now successfully operating, or is that pretty much it?
Until the Administration starts coherently communicating what needs to happen to win this thing, and where we are currently at, aside from the political milestones which are only half the battle, and specifically are we doing what needs to be done with training Iraqis to secure there own country and how long do we reasonably expect it to take, its tough to say that just based on one successful miliatry operation that we are winning bigger picture in Iraq.